SAND (Systematic Analysis tool for Natural Disasters)

 

Research question:

How to intervene adequately in internal as well as external processes concerning the  course of disasters during the cold, hot and recovery phase.

Refined research questions:

- How to represent the course of a disaster in models by which the effects of (parallel) processes, particularly interdependency between processes can be understood.

- Which risks can effectively become reduced including the economic effects of a disaster event taking into account the recovery costs.

Approach:

A knowledge base applied with innovative techniques.

research trajectories (tentative outline):

1 Business case; How to quantify risks that rate the model.
2 Validation of model; Literature review.
3 Taxonomies and ontology; (Inter)national tuning in ISCRAM, EU and UN conventions
4 Development of a text analysis strategy related to FS (Feature Solution) concept
5a ICT tools supporting text analysis
5b ICT tools supporting reasoning engine knowledge base
5c ICT tools supporting visualisation of information
6 Skills lab, applying text analysis, methods for content validation, gate keeper
7 field test of system, do results met requirements of target group
8 Serious gaming, simulations

Preliminary research:

DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMATIC METHOD FOR THE REPRESENTATION OF NATURAL DISASTERS AND THE EXTRACTION OF LESSONS LEARNED USING INNOVATING TOOLS.

resulting in benefits as mentioned in the following abstract.

Abstract:

The method is based on the analytical description of the threat or hazard types, the combating/control processes, the safety chain and the critical infrastructure. A logical cohesion was imposed within this context and the interdependencies were processed within the methodical information analysis. A logical connection was created between risk, source and effect on one hand and preparation and mitigation on the other. Hence, policy and operational implementation both have a recognisable role in the analysis.

“Feature-Solution Graph” (FS graph) and Use Case Maps (UCM) were used for information analysis.

Best practices applying this method are:

-         A usable modelling technique, which enables straightforward representation.

-         Answers to a series of research questions concerning fact finding, explorative research questions, trend analysis, interdependencies finding, benchmarking, extraction of lessons learned.

-         Comparison concerning so called cross-cuts by different domains recognisable as individual cases, hazard types, specific processes and so on.

-         The playing of what-if games, which give information about the state of the art of safety measures before a major incident happens. Cascade effects caused by the outcome of  certain processes become visible.

-         Increased objectivity obtained by using a gatekeeper.

-         Structures, represented in a proposed modelling concept of FS-graphs and UCMs, may help generating emergency and contingency plans, depending on contexts.

-         Lacunas in the disaster descriptions become visible when comparing a case dependent knowledge base with the accumulated knowledgebase.

-         The accumulated knowledgebase, which provides a format for straightforward disaster description.  

-    The (actually) generally serviceable modelling techniques, through which the system can be used for all types of problems, also man-made disasters.